Monday, October 15, 2018

Why Do People Believe Climate Liars?

The  self-proclaimed  Climate Prophets who claim they can predict climate years in advance are either deliberately lying or incredibly stupid.   Weather related scientists don't know enough about the factors that control daily weather to  make more than approximate predictions of short term weather.   How can anyone believe weather scientists can accurately predict weather decades in advance?

If you look at a Weather Bureau forecast you will notice that if it predicts the possibility of  rain the prediction will show the probability of rain as a percentage.   The probability of rain might by 20% or maybe 60%.  Meteorologists  know rain can occur under various conditions.   The percentage  figure indicates how often it will rain when the conditions are like the conditions predicted for that day

The forecast page will show daily forecasts for a week.  If you check the daily forecast you may notice that the  daily forecast for a specific day may change as the week progresses.  For example, on Saturday  you start checking on the forecast for the next Friday and the notice the forecast temperature is 80 F with a 20% chance of rain.  The next day the forecast might change to 75 F and a 30% chance of rain. On Tuesday the temperature forecast might change back to 80 F with no rain prediction.  On Thursday the Friday temperature forecast might drop to 70  F with a 40% chance of  rain.

Meteorologists' forecasts are more accurate than they were 50 years ago and we are far less likely to have to shovel three inches of "party cloudy" off the sidewalk.  Forecasts still aren't perfect, but computers can help process the data.   Programmers work to improve the accuracy of their models as more data is collected.  

The computer programs the Climate Prophets use are of no value because they cannot be tested for accuracy against  data.that won't exist for years.

Most people don't understand that scientists are the original Western Civilization con artists.  Early "scientists" got money from wealthy nobles by claiming to be working on a way to convert lead into gold.  Scientists know other scientists cannot be trusted.  Science magazines  adopted a peer review process to reduce fraud.   Unfortunately. this process is no longer working.

Horace Freeland Judson in his book "The Great Betrayal",  "sketches science as a fortress rising out of the mists, focused solely on defending and enriching itself. It might pretend to worship the Goddess Truth but inside, out of sight, it is the God Mammon who is lusted after."

The Climate Prophets pursue checkbook science.   The person with the checkbook decides what "science" says.  The Prophets can predict anything they want because  they know by the time the future gets here people will have forgotten what the prediction was.

2 comments:

  1. this is contemporary conservativism: a janitor sneering in contempt at scientists.

    we're going to try and save your damn lives, and you're going to be fighting your entire life to stop us

    ReplyDelete